PRO-ELLIOTT-WAVER

Last week we published charts showing our opinion of the current market structure and how the Elliott wave formation is developing. We were looking for some small degree ups and downs (4's and 5's) to complete the "minuette" wave-(iii) or "minute" wave [iii] top where we should see a small corrective move down. Since then the market has moved up in a diagonal looking pattern, although void of any over-laps, at today's high reaching the common price target where wave-(iii) is a Fib 1.618% of wave-(i). We can also see that wave-(iii) has five sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v. The cash market came around 10 points short of hitting the same Fib target as the futures market. This divergence could also help the correction start. Price has turned down on the day in the largest correction since wave-v of (iii) began which should indicate that the wave-(iv) correction has begun. How deep it goes is anyone's guess because of the way the market has been acting for the p...

  Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

The price of gold got a big boost in March at the time Corona virus was being unleashed on the country, and world. The markets hate uncertainty more than anything else and the virus along with economic ramifications has definitely created uncertainty. This is why people flocked into gold! Even with this event taking place it didn't do very much to effect the long term chart patterns other than to extend price and time. Fundamental events never start a new trend....they only help the current wave formation that is already being played out. The last updates we did on the long term gold chart showed that we were watching a large "intermediate" degree wave (C) rally that when complete would finish the "primary" wave [B] that began in December 2015. The decline from the all time high in 2011 counted at the time as a perfect five waves. In late 2014 and early 2015 an "ending diagonal" as wave (5) of [A] competed and started a very expected large thr...

The S&P500 Index has hit a new all time high today by 1.5 pts. While the Dow Index is still lagging way behind we do expect it to catch up. If the Dow fails to make a new high this would form a large divergence between two primary indices that would strengthen the opinion of a major top forming. Today we're showing a chart of the S&P index that we've had drawn since early this year that shows the market has been in a large "intermediate" wave (4) correction ever since the high of January 2018. In early 2019 we showed that the wave formation looked like it may be forming an "expanding" triangle pattern that needed to finish out the D and then E wave before completing. Price went on to finish D in February this year and then the huge drop because of Covid formed the wave E to complete the triangle. The rally form the March low is trying hard, in the face of massive uncertainty, to form an impulse five waves as the last and final "mi...

I'm finally back and ready to focus on the markets again after taking a hiatus for a couple of reasons. First,  as of yesterday I am a proud granddad for the first time but, I am a granddad on both sides at the same time with a beautiful baby girl and beautiful baby boy with only 14 hours between them...what are the odds of that..:-)                       And second, as far as the markets are concerned it was a perfect time to step back and let the chart patterns work to form some clarity as to what traders are thinking. It's hard to believe indices have recovered back to the all-time-highs with the Nasdaq making new highs during a pandemic that has caused the worse financial conditions at least back to 1929 and probably percentage wise much worse. In the years as a Hedge Fund and Pension fund trader on Wall Street I had a rule! Wave 2 corrections could never exceed 78.6% of the corresponding Wave 1 unless the ...

The Nasdaq has been making all time highs for weeks, however, other indices like the S&P and Dow have been lagging way behind. Markets at major turning points whether tops or bottoms become fractured. They diverge from one another which creates inter market divergences. This is what's going on now! Sometimes markets catch up and eventually all converge to create the same wave patterns. For now either the Nasdaq is topping out and ready to turn down or it has further to run and the other markets will eventually confirm the move. Today's charts show this confusion in the markets which is being displayed by the wave formations. This is all easier explained and much easier to understand by watching our video just published on our channel.    www.youtube.com/c/proelliottwaver   Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

The market continues to find support at critical price levels keeping one last big rally alive The question remains....can markets over-look, and hope, all of the world problems will calm down long enough for one last rally to an All-Time-High. Today's rally completed a five wave impulse shown on the chart under our primary count as wave (ii). Under this scenario the market competed wave C of an A-B-C corrective wave (2) at the high several weeks ago. Since then the decline in price is forming an Elliott series of ones and twos. The first decline was "minute" wave [i] off the high that was followed by the wave [ii] correction. Last week we got the next leg down as wave (i) and today's rally may have completed the waves a-b and c for wave (ii). A decline now as wave-i of (iii) below the recent wave (i) low followed by a brief wave-ii correction will confirm the one's and two's are complete and the first third of a third wave down as wave-iii of (iii) of ...

Today we saw a big price drop right from the open on the news that Corona cases are surging and that Connecticut, New Jersey and New York have 14 day quarantines for any visitors entering from the new hot spots. However, that news didn't go away 3 hrs after the market opened yet prices stopped going down and rallied the rest of the day. The point of rehashing what the market did today is to show how fundamental events create short term reactions in the markets but that technicals are really what controls price movement. To clarify....today's low price had a Fibonacci price relationship to a previous move the market made where wave (c) down is 1.618 times the (a) wave down. This is the reason traders stopped selling! This price relationship has the possibility to confirm a major Elliott Wave chart pattern that will start a big rally. However, if today's low can't stop the selling it will confirm the next major move down. The very small interval wave structur...

Today was options expiration for the June contracts which caused a price gap higher on the open. The gap up open was immediately filled making it an "exhaustion" gap. The decline through out the day formed a small impulse five wave structure that took out yesterday's low. In yesterday's video we showed how a possible "triangle" was forming for wave-b and that if it was a "triangle" we would see a small move higher as wave-c to complete the wave (ii) correction. It appears this is what the market did! We've labeled the small five down today as "micro" [1] of "sub-minuette" wave-i. If this is what the market is doing then we should see a gap down Sunday night and Monday morning for wave [3] of wave-i. If this is what the market plans to do we will see price form a larger five waves down below the previous wave (i) low and finally break and over-lap the top of the previous wave [a] high. If all of this happens n...

Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Today was a volatile day and great if your a trader but not if your a position trader or worse swing trading. Yesterday the experts said there was a Covid surge and today they said there isn't and not going to be. This is causing a Social Mood on steroids market! Yesterday was a 90% plus (NYSE) declining vs advancing down day, the markets traded back below the 200 day MA, volume was heavy, there was as perfect of an Island Reversal as you will ever see and the candle sticks gave a big sell...this is all bearish at least for the short term if not long term. With all of that...here's what Elliott has to say which is what we really need to know. This morning we saw a big gap higher on the news because the experts said we wouldn't have a virus surge and even if we did we'd be prepared for it. This was good news and it could have been a "break away gap" starting another rally, however, it didn't last and price filled the gap canceling the immediate bul...

Today's update is a video discussing the recent market action and what the charts are telling us about today's big down day. Watch the video here.....https://bit.ly/2UPrVpVproelliottwaver Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Back from vacation and it doesn't look like I missed much. One thing I learned long ago was that if I wanted the market to do something I was waiting for...all I had to do was go on vacation and it would happen. I'm not sure it worked this time. The long ascending sideways rally just keeps going and it's hard to count any wave structure with absolute certainty. The 30 minute chart shows a five wave structure with a possible diagonal wave-v of (v) of [c]. I don't have much confidence in this particular count and I'm showing mainly to try to align it with the NQ...which by the way made a new all time high today. What a major divergence with the other indices! Are the other indices working on 5th waves to new highs and just lagging behind? Or are the divergences showing us that this is wave 2! The problem with the diagonal in NQ that people are overlooking is that the third wave is the longest. By diagonal rules this shouldn't happen...the third wave sho...

Since we last updated Gold we've seen a large drop that has been followed back to a new high in a five wave structure. A large "double" zig-zag pattern labeled as (W)-(X)-(Y) from the 2015 low is in the final sub-waves of completing. The top could already be in place shown on the weekly chart below, however, looking at the daily chart we can see a potential contracting "triangle" that formed over the past few weeks. Triangles like this only happen in a fourth wave position so it's likely that a fifth wave rally above 1800.00 will happen. Moving below the wave (e) of [iv] low at 1692.10 would confirm the recent high was the end of the rally. We explain the long term chart in detail and what to expect next for Gold in a video today on our YouTube channel... Hoping everyone has a great and SAFE holiday weekend!!! Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

The gap up open on Monday changed the immediate bearish count for the start of wave 3 down. Now we have several alternates that are all possibilities with the first chart showing that the "double zig-zag" can still be forming. The second chart is another alternate for the wave 2 scenario if the market still needs more time. Both charts are explained in a video today on our YouTube channel... https://tinyurl.com/Pro-Elliott-Waver Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Todays news of thousands of businesses that won't ever reopen along with Fed Chairman Powell saying the economic outlook is highly uncertain was more than the market could take and was the catylist to start the move down we've been waiting for. Friday our charts showed how the potential for the "double zig-zag" wave 2 was complete at the high and that the small five wave impulse decline should be wave (i) down to kick off the next leg of the bear market. The last two days we watched a rally fully retrace the drop which formed a 5-3-5 zig-zag at yesterday mornings high for wave (ii).  Price reversed after hitting the morning high (turn around Tuesday) and as of today the market is down 100 SP pts and over 1000 Dow pts. The move down counts as five waves at today's low as shown on the 30 min chart which we have labeled as "sub-minuette" wave-i of (iii) of [i]. The global futures chart clearly shows a clean five waves down fro...