PRO-ELLIOTT-WAVER

The price of gold got a big boost in March at the time Corona virus was being unleashed on the country, and world. The markets hate uncertainty more than anything else and the virus along with economic ramifications has definitely created uncertainty. This is why people flocked into gold! Even with this event taking place it didn't do very much to effect the long term chart patterns other than to extend price and time. Fundamental events never start a new trend....they only help the current wave formation that is already being played out. The last updates we did on the long term gold chart showed that we were watching a large "intermediate" degree wave (C) rally that when complete would finish the "primary" wave [B] that began in December 2015. The decline from the all time high in 2011 counted at the time as a perfect five waves. In late 2014 and early 2015 an "ending diagonal" as wave (5) of [A] competed and started a very expected large thr...

Since we last updated Gold we've seen a large drop that has been followed back to a new high in a five wave structure. A large "double" zig-zag pattern labeled as (W)-(X)-(Y) from the 2015 low is in the final sub-waves of completing. The top could already be in place shown on the weekly chart below, however, looking at the daily chart we can see a potential contracting "triangle" that formed over the past few weeks. Triangles like this only happen in a fourth wave position so it's likely that a fifth wave rally above 1800.00 will happen. Moving below the wave (e) of [iv] low at 1692.10 would confirm the recent high was the end of the rally. We explain the long term chart in detail and what to expect next for Gold in a video today on our YouTube channel... Hoping everyone has a great and SAFE holiday weekend!!! Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Gold had a nice decline from the recent 1691.00 high but, as this chart shows it is clearly three waves labeled (a)-(b)-(c). This means that it's likely the three waves was wave [iv] of 5. The move up off the low has rallied back to test the high in what appears to be five waves on the 15 minute charts. Price should continue to a new high unless wave [v] has already completed which would mean a truncated fifth wave. Since truncated fifths are very rare we'll look for a new high before the end of the rally! Notice on the long term chart how well the five wave rally for wave (C) has stayed in the (blue) channel lines. Breaking below the lower channel line (on a closing basis) will signal the end of the rally that will lead to a quick move down to the previous wave 4 low of 1459.00 This will be the beginning of a larger five wave decline to unfold as wave [C] well below the wave [A] low made in December 2015. Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

In the last update we were looking for gold futures to rally to a new high to complete five sub-waves of wave 5. This move would also complete (C) of the larger "primary" degree wave [B]. Today we got the push higher to prices that we have not seen in seven years. This chart of the April futures contract shows that wave 5 will equal wave 1 of the same degree at the 1630.00 area which is a good target. Today's high came close at 1626.00! We could see a smaller degree fourth and fifth up/down move to make the final high. The wave pattern down from the all time high in 2011, as five waves, to the low in 2015 is clear. The three wave corrective rally from that low over the past five years is now also clear. This means that the price of gold is ready to start the next large wave down which should be in the form of five waves. This move will take the price below 1000.00 with a perfect target being near 750.00. Once this move down completes, probably over the next...

Fig 1 Gold got a spike higher on the coronavirus news as the stock market sold off, however, it was short lived and failed to make a new high. All we're waiting for here is to see if the "minor" wave 5 (blue) gives us five sub-waves to one last high above 1611.00 to complete the formation. Wave [iv] (green) can still be working but, the longer it takes the less likely it becomes. Fig 1 above shows the invalidation line which is the wave 4 low. Breaking below this low at anytime before making a new high will confirm a top is in place. The over 4 year long bear rally from the 2015 low will be complete as "intermediate" wave (C) (red) which will lead to much lower prices. Fig 2 Notice in Fig 2 that there is a large wave i (pink) in the top left corner and a large wave-ii (pink) in the lower right corner. These labels represent the "cycle" degree time frame (10 years or longer) with the high of wave-i marking the all-time high in the pr...

Prior to the holidays we posted an update that said..."the most bullish week of the year (Thanksgiving) didn't disappoint bulls this year. Veteran traders know that 85% of the time the markets rally during that week but, not all traders are aware that the wave count also has to be in a position to support the rally or it doesn't happen". Fig 1. Through all of last year the market traded in a wide, sideways range making it difficult to determine if the market was still correcting from the 2018 highs or if the January 2019 low marked the end of the correction. Days before and into Thanksgiving the market moved high enough to finally confirm that the "intermediate" degree wave (5) was underway and that the Jan 2019 low was in fact the end of " intermediate" wave (4). Fig 2. Our alternate count from last year moved to the primary count as price moved above the white dashed line. Notice in fig 2 price moved above the trend-line and i...

The most bullish week of the year (Thanksgiving) didn't disappoint bulls this year. Veteran traders know that 85% of the time the markets rally during that week but, not all traders are aware that the wave count also has to be in a position to support the rally or it doesn't happen. Coming up will be the next most bullish week of the year (Christmas) also with an 85% track record although the size of the rallies are not as big on average as Thanksgiving. Our last update showed how price had completed a small "triangle" that would be followed by a quick rally. The next morning the market gapped higher and rallied to a new high in an impulse five waves. Price then fell back to the area of wave-e of that "triangle" also described in the update. We labeled that chart showing that the rally would end an "extended" fifth wave but instead only completed a smaller degree wave-[5] of wave-iii shown on today's chart. The updated chart shows th...

Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"

Gold is still in the process of forming an impulse five wave structure that started from the low made in August last year. Price is currently working on "minor" wave 4 within the formation and once complete will see a rally to a new high for "minor" wave 5. The last Gold update showed that "minor" wave 3 had reached the price where 3 was equal to 1.618 x 1. That remained the high and price has been in a "minor" wave 4 correction since. So far, wave 4 has declined in three waves to the Fib 27.2% retracement of wave 3 that we have labeled as "minute" wave [a] of 4. A three wave bounce from there is labeled as wave [b] of 4. Expectations now would be to see another three or five wave decline to complete a "flat" for wave [c] of 4 with targets being 38.2% or 50.0% of wave 3. Price could also continue in the same range to eventually form a wave 4 "triangle." Once wave 4 completes we should see the start of a...

We first mentioned a gap on the chart after the five wave decline completed in 2014 as a target for the coming correction. Little did we know it would take six years but price has made it to and exactly filled a small gap that has been open since 2013 (shown on the chart). Currently, the chart has been labeled showing that price is working in "minor" wave 3 of "intermediate" wave C. The overnight high of 1565.00 hit a Fib - 3 = 1.618 of 1 - and also was right at a 50% retrace of the decline from 2011/2014. Wave 3 could have one more down/up sub-wave before completing but, it's not necessary and wave 3 could be complete. As we now monitor for a wave 4 correction and watch for a wave 5 rally to complete wave C...we only see one alternate.  Price has already achieved several of the targets for the ABC correction from the 2014 low. It's possible that the current rally (C) will end as a three to match (A) of five. This would make the entire correcti...

Price should be working on a five wave rally which will complete wave (C)of  [B] as shown on the chart. The first target is the upper red channel line currently sitting around 1535.00 which also corresponds with (C) being equal in length to (A) around 1532.00. Breaking above this area by much for an extended period of time would be bullish for a further move to the 61.8% Fib retracement level around 1680.00. This would also come as a surprise! A break and over-lap of wave 1 before completing the five wave structure would be bearish. Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"