S&P500 ~ upside correction of last weeks decline continues before next wave lower...
The last short term update showed that one more push lower was needed for a five count to complete wave-i. Visually this would have made the five look better. Today's corrective rally that started late Friday gapped up this morning and continued to the 61.8% Fib retrace of the entire drop from the wave (b) high. It is still possible that today's rally is wave [4] and another low would be [5] of wave-i because nothing has been violated yet, other than appearance. The blue shaded line shows where wave [4] can't go and price came right to it and reversed. The other observation we make against wave [4] is that wave [2] retraced a Fib 78.6% of [1]. Since [2] was this big we would expect [4] to retrace no more than 38.2% of [3]. For these reasons we've labeled the chart as having completed wave-i on Friday with today being wave-ii and watching for confirmation that wave-iii down is under way. The only alternative would be if the market attempts another ral...