PRO-ELLIOTT-WAVER

Last week's update was counting the rally over the past week as wave (b) which was correcting the initial five wave impulse decline from the ATH labeled as wave (a). Confidence in this count was helped over the week by a shrinking advance/decline along with volume and momentum divergences. And now (finally) with today's large decline we have price confirmation. Wave (c) down should be under way now which should form a five wave structure. Price still needs to move below 2820.00 but once it does we should see a move to or below 2720.00 before completing wave (c) of a larger wave [a].  It's possible that the market could drop in a large five waves down from here to the December low. Our labels reflect that the wave formation will be a double three which is why we label at the "minuet" degree for now. However, we could change this to "minute" degree if price gets carried away and forms a single "zig-zag" down to our expe...

Since the low last Thursday the market rallied tracing out a small five wave pattern into yesterday's high. We posted this chart yesterday labeling the rally as (ii) or (b).  We thought there was a chance to add a small sub-wave today to retest the internal trend-line but price was unable to rally and instead declined enough to confirm the top yesterday...at least short term. If price did in fact top then today should be the start of a larger decline. We label the chart with (iii) or (c) because it's not clear what structure the decline will take seeing how we believe this to only be part of a larger degree correction over the next couple of months as the long term chart posted shows. The bull scenario now would be that this five rally is only wave-i and will subdivide higher before completing (ii) or (c). Obviously another move to challenge or break the recent ATH would have the potential for a strong impulse wave much higher. Follow the Trend and "Tr...

Last week we saw the futures decline to complete five waves from Tuesdays high to the low on Thursday. The subdivisions of the five waves provided us with several Elliott patterns as labeled on the chart. Wave-iii had five sub-waves ending with a diagonal [5] of iii that was followed by a triangle pattern for wave-iv. Once wave [E] within the triangle completed price dropped to a new low tagging the lower trend-line to end the five wave decline.  The chart also points out that wave-v was the same length as wave-i. The decline can only count as five waves of -c- of an a-b-c or wave (i) starting the next impulse decline once the market corrects for wave (Ii). The problem with the wave (Ii) scenario is that Friday's reversal appears to be forming five waves up which would be bullish for a move above Tuesdays high at a minimum. Follow the trend and "Trade Safe"

Over the past few trading days price retraced the initial decline from the high in a three wave structure. Yesterday's sharp rally subdivided as five waves to qualify as wave-c of an a-b-c correction. The rally also stopped right at the Fib 61.8% target (c = 61.8 of a) shown on the chart. Today's sharp decline still needs to break below 2820 to confirm the larger primary count of the long term chart. Failing to do so would allow a retest of yesterday's rally to form a more complex double corrective pattern. Follow the trend and "Trade Safe"

For 18+ months we've been watching the SP basically go nowhere. The parabolic move in late 2017 had all the characteristics of a third wave as labeled on the chart.  Since that time we have patiently watched for signs that wave four had formed and that wave five had begun.  The three wave decline into last December could have been a large three wave w-x-y flat completing all of wave four. However, three wave patterns  down and up are all that we have especially with the recent new highs that bumped against the trend-line counting as only another three, so far. Our primary count because of this has been and still is that wave four is still in progress. If this is correct then we could see a large expanding triangle structure that needs one more three wave move down breaking the December low to form wave-e.  These patterns are rare with the last one being in the late 1960 early 1970's which in our opinion was a "cycle" degree with the current triangle being at...

Price should be working on a five wave rally which will complete wave (C)of  [B] as shown on the chart. The first target is the upper red channel line currently sitting around 1535.00 which also corresponds with (C) being equal in length to (A) around 1532.00. Breaking above this area by much for an extended period of time would be bullish for a further move to the 61.8% Fib retracement level around 1680.00. This would also come as a surprise! A break and over-lap of wave 1 before completing the five wave structure would be bearish. Follow the Trend and "Trade Safe"